Forensics in Spanish
¿Transición Inminente a Ipv6? Feb 09 2006 02:15PM
Jeimy José Cano Martínez (jcano uniandes edu co)


Estimados profesionales,

Luego de revisar el siguiente artículo se advierten una serie de reflexiones
serias a nivel internacional que sugieren una transición (parecida a la del
Y2k) de IPv4 a IPv6 dado el rápido consumo de direcciones Ipv4. Remito el
enlace al artículo para su revisión y análisis.

http://www.cisco.com/web/about/ac123/ac147/archived_issues/ipj_8-3/ipv4.
html

(?)
The approach used in the potaroo report is to take the simple exponential fit to
the allocation data since 1995. As discussed later in this article, this
approach includes the effects of the policy shift to Classless Interdomain
Routing (CIDR) and subsequent digestion of prior allocations, the lull in IANA
allocations to the RIRs for two full years, as well as the fact that the model
used does not generate a particularly close fit to the actual run rate over the
10-year period.

Although this author agrees that over very long timeframes (20?50 years) there
will be substantial variations in the consumption rate for any number of
reasons, the opportunity for events that would reduce the recent rate in the
timeframe of the remaining IANA IPv4 pool is not evident. That said, there are
numerous things that could increase the consumption rate and exhaust the pool
even sooner than this projection.
(?)

Jeimy J. Cano, Ph.D, CFE
Universidad de los Andes
Bogota, D.C
COLOMBIA

Editor of "Critical Reflections on Information Systems. A systemic approach"
http://www.idea-group.com/books/details.asp?id=507

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